BIPV - Under the dual-carbon policy, the market size may reach 400 billion yuan in 2030

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is a technology that integrates solar power (photovoltaic) products into buildings. Driven by China's dual-carbon policy, BIPV will become the key to the green transformation of the construction industry. By 2030, we estimate that the BIPV market size will reach approximately 200-800 billion yuan. BIPV can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by generating electricity through photovoltaic modules integrated with the building.

We believe that the market has already anticipated the upward cycle of the BIPV industry, but has not yet fully reflected the potential upside brought about by the improved IRR of BIPV projects and the implicit benefits that clients are gradually recognizing. In addition, we believe investors underestimate the bargaining power of construction contractors on channel resources. Therefore, under the baseline scenario, we predict that driven by continued cost reduction, incentive policies and the gradual recognition of implicit benefits, the BIPV market size may reach about 400 billion yuan by 2030, and the cumulative penetration rate will increase from 2020 to 2020. 0.1% to 5% in 2030.

Although the current cost of BIPV roofs is still high compared to ordinary roofs, we believe that through increased demand, economies of scale brought about by large-scale manufacturing, and technological advancements that improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic systems, BIPV costs will decrease and financial returns will increase.

Therefore, we expect BIPV to follow a development path similar to that of PV. Policy incentives will drive demand in the early stages, and later due to cost reductions, BIPV investment will become attractive even without subsidies.

IPV may provide some implicit benefits that are not yet fully recognized. These benefits include thermal effects, time benefits and safety, which we believe may be particularly attractive to owners of industrial and commercial buildings. As more pilot projects are completed, if these benefits can be gradually recognized, we believe that the market potential of BIPV will further increase.

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